NRAP researchers have developed an approach and computational framework to assess risk from induced seismicity for GCS sites. This approach is an adaptation of conventional Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis (PSRA) method developed for application in estimation of risk of structural damage from naturally-occurring earthquakes (e.g., Cornell, 1968; Budnitz et al., 1997). It links the probability of occurrence of earthquakes to their primary consequences; for induced seismicity from GCS activity these consequences will include nuisance resulting from minor felt ground shaking and potential minor structural damage. This approach to applying PSRA to GCS-related seismicity is described in detail by White and Foxall (2016). The general PSRA computational framework for induced seismicity risk quantification developed by NRAP researchers is the computer code RiskCat (White and Foxall, 2016; Savy and Foxall, 2019). A schematic representation of the functionality included in that code is shown in Figure 5. The framework can accommodate empirical seismicity catalogs or catalogs generated by physics-based or stochastic hybrid simulation. Additionally, ground motion calculations can be calculated using various empirically-based, analytical or numerical methods. The framework is fully stochastic to capture both uncertainty and natural variability in its forecasts (White and Foxall, 2016; Layland-Bachmann et al., 2016). RiskCat is a valuable tool for site operators and seismic risk assessment practitioners as they estimate seismic risk at GCS sites and evaluate performance of proposed seismicity risk management approaches.
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