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ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

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The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

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OSTI Info

Field Value
Sponsor Organization USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
Contact Organization National Energy Technology Laboratory
DOE Contract Number FWP1025009
DOI Number 10.18141/1958726

Additional Info

Field Value
Last Updated December 13, 2023, 20:37 (LMT)
Created February 9, 2023, 16:23 (LMT)
Citation Kayla Kroll, Christopher Sherman, ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity, 2/9/2023, https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/orion-operational-forecasting-of-induced-seismicity, DOI: 10.18141/1958726
Geospatial no
Netl Product yes
Osti yes
Poc Email robert.dilmore@netl.doe.gov
Point Of Contact Robert Dilmore
Program Or Project National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), Science informed Machine Learning to Accelerate Real Time (SMART) Decisions in Subsurface Applications
Project Number FWP1025009