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Review of coal-supply models and forecasts: a critique of the current state-of-the-art

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The outputs from various coal supply modeling systems influence decisions in diverse areas (e.g., the Department of Interior's establishment of coal leasing goals for federal lands; the Department of Energy's Fossil Energy Research and Development programs). Widely employed coal supply models combine dependence on data streams of doubtful accuracy and appropriateness with tenuous methodological assumptions. Similarities in the structural assumptions of the models and in assumed values of driving variables have resulted in similar forecasts. Many policymakers feel these models project energy futures with implausibly low coal prices. This report provides an overview of ongoing analyses of coal supply models at the National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and includes discussion of model philosophies, overview of methodologies (comparative anatomy), comparison of conceptual structure, review and evaluation of recent forecasts, and recommendations.

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Last Updated September 29, 2016, 16:01 (LMT)
Created September 29, 2016, 16:01 (LMT)
Citation Newcombe, R. ---- Roy Long, Review of coal-supply models and forecasts: a critique of the current state-of-the-art, 2016-09-29, https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/review-of-coal-supply-models-and-forecasts-a-critique-of-the-current-state-of-the-art
Netl Product yes
Poc Email Roy.long@netl.doe.gov
Point Of Contact Roy Long
Program Or Project KMD
Publication Date 1982-8-1